July U.S. Container Import Volumes Increase from June and Continue to Track 2019 Performance 

In July 2023, U.S. container import volume increased compared to June 2023, which is consistent with the rise that occurs in peak season in non-pandemic years. Despite the volume increase, port transit times remained close to their lowest levels since Descartes began tracking them. The U.S. West Coast labor situation continues to progress slowly in the right direction, while the Canadian West Coast situation had an eventful month that ended positively. The August update of the logistics metrics Descartes is tracking shows continued consistency with 2019 results and signs that key challenges to global supply chain performance in 2023 have stabilized.  

July 2023 U.S. container import volumes increased 5.1% from June 2023 to 2,187,810 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) (see Figure 1). Versus July 2022, TEU volume was lower by 13.6%, and down 0.5% from pre-pandemic July 2019. The growth in import volume over the first seven months of 2023 is within 1.7% of the same period in 2019.

Figure 1: U.S. Container Import Volume Year-over-Year Comparison

Source: Descartes Datamyne™

Examining the increase in import volumes from June to July in the previous six years, apart from pandemic-driven 2020, 2021 and 2022 which were anomalies, July 2023 volumes show the lowest increase from June of the same year (see Figure 2).  

Figure 2: June to July U.S. Container Import Volume Comparison 

Source: Descartes Datamyne™ 

For the top 10 ports, overall U.S. container import volume in July 2023 was up 88,987 TEUs versus June (see Figure 3) with nine of the ten ports reporting increases. The Ports of Savannah (47,900 TEUs) and New York/New Jersey (43,169 TEUs) showed the greatest overall container volume increases, but the Port of Los Angeles had the greatest decrease (-68,874 TEUs).  

Figure 3: June to July Comparison of Import Volumes at Top 10 U.S. Ports 

Source: Descartes Datamyne™ 

Chinese imports in July 2023 increased by 4.7% over June 2023 to 819,837 TEUs, but they were still down 18.3% from the August 2022 high (see Figure 4). China represented 37.5% of the total U.S. container imports in July, a slight decrease of 0.1% from June, but still down 4.0% from the high of 41.5% in February 2022. 

Figure 4: July 2022–July 2023 Comparison of U.S. Total and Chinese TEU Container Volume  

Source: Descartes Datamyne

For the top 10 countries of origin (CoO), U.S. container import volume in July 2023 increased 3.9% (58,583 TEUs) from the previous month, with China having the greatest volume increase (36,818 TEUs) and Germany (12.8%) and South Korea (12.5%) having the greatest percentage increases (see Figure 5) 

Figure 5: June to July Comparison of U.S. Import Volumes from Top 10 Countries of Origin 

Source: Descartes Datamyne

In July 2023, the volume share at top West Coast ports fell based upon the significant volume decrease at the Port of Los Angeles. Comparing the top five West Coast ports to the top five East and Gulf Coast ports in July 2023 versus June 2023 shows that, of the total import container volume, top West Coast ports decreased to 38.3% (down 4.1%) and top East and Gulf Coast ports increased to 46.4% (up 4.1%). Compared to smaller ports, the top 10 ports’ share in July 2023 fell slightly to 84.7%, down 0.1% versus June 2023 (see Figure 6). 

Figure 6: Volume Analysis for Top Ports, West Coast Ports and East and Gulf Coast Ports  

Source: Descartes Datamyne

In July 2023, overall port transit delays were similar to June 2023 (see Figure 7) and one of the lowest months since Descartes started tracking them. Only the Port of Tacoma saw a significant increase (2.2 days) in July 2023 compared to June. The greatest decrease was the Port of Seattle (2.2 days). 

Figure 7: Monthly Average Transit Delays (in days) for the Top 10 Ports  

Source: Descartes Datamyne™

Note: Descartes’ definition of port transit delay is the difference as measured in days between the Estimated Arrival Date, which is initially declared on the bill of lading, and the date when Descartes receives the CBP-processed bill of lading.

The International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) and Pacific Maritime Association announced they reached a tentative agreement in June. The contract spans six years, but still needs to be ratified before it can take effect, and this could take several months. There have been no job actions by the U.S ILWU since reaching the tentative agreement. The Canadian ILWU did strike for several weeks in July at the ports of Vancouver and Prince Rupert; however, they also reached a tentative agreement and after some ups and downs, eventually ratified their contract in early August. In non-labor items impacting shipping, Panama, is still experiencing a drought and there is a restriction in the number of ships passing through the canal. 

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, gasoline costs, a significant contributor to high inflation rates, continued the recent uptrend this year, rising to $3.757/gallon in July 2023, but the good news is that this was down $0.44/gallon from July 2022. Both are reversals from previous declines and are likely to remain elevated for the foreseeable future given the disruption of global energy markets due to the war in Ukraine and subsequent sanctions on Russia. 

U.S. container import volume increased in July, continuing to track 2019 numbers, and there are positive signs that point to less supply chain turbulence. Here’s what Descartes will be watching to see if global supply chain performance will continue to improve: 

• Monthly TEU volumes between 2.4M and 2.6M. This level will continue to stress ports and inland logistics until infrastructure can be enhanced. July U.S. container import volumes are up to 2.19 TEUs, but significantly below this range. 

• Port transit wait times. If they decrease, it’s an indication of improved global supply chain efficiencies capabilities or that the demand for goods and logistics services is declining. July port wait times across all major ports remained consistent with decreased wait times in June.   
• Continuing impact of the pandemic. The spread of COVID subvariants continues to add uncertainty to the trajectory of the pandemic and impact supply chains in unpredictable ways as different countries are affected at different times and for different durations. COVID is still with us but having less impact on supply chain and logistics resources and supply chain performance variability.   
• ILWU contract negotiations. The ILWU contract has expired, but to date there hasn’t been an impact on U.S. West Coast port operations; however, California AB5 has the potential to cause more disruptions to California port operations. The ILWU and Pacific Maritime Association announced they reached a tentative agreement, but it still needs to be ratified. 
• Inflation and the Russia/Ukraine conflict. Inflation may be the only way to slow down the strong U.S. economy and ultimately help to alleviate the global logistics capacity-related problems that exist. The latest Consumer Price Index report available (June 2023) shows a decrease in inflation to 3.0%, but it is still higher than the U.S. Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. Diesel and gas prices have increased and both remain elevated because of the Russia/Ukraine conflict. 

July 2023, U.S. container import volumes were up versus June 2023 and still close to pre-pandemic 2019 numbers. Port transit times in July remained at lower levels. The U.S. West Coast labor situation appears to be resolved, which could facilitate a return of some of the volume that moved to Gulf and East Coast ports though the continuing drought situation in Panama may hasten that return. This data reaffirms that the pressure on supply chains and logistics operations is continuing to lift, but there are still issues that can cause further disruptions. Descartes will continue to highlight key Descartes Datamyne, U.S. government and industry data in the coming months to provide insight into global shipping. We're staying the course with our current perspectives and recommendations:  

Short-term: 

• Monitor the impact of California law AB5 on owner-operators serving California ports for potential disruption or degradation of port container processing performance. 
• Monitor ILWU contract negotiations for ratification.  
• Track the spread of COVID variants to determine when they will hit critical parts of the supply chain, especially in China. 
• Track ocean shipments and carrier performance as there is still a considerable gap between original ETAs and actual ones.   
• Evaluate the impact of inflation and the Russia/Ukraine conflict on logistics costs and capacity constraints. Ensure that key trading partners are not on sanctions lists.  
• Focus on keeping the supply chain resources you have, especially drivers. The old adage “a bird in the hand is worth more than two in the bush” definitely applies here. Building trips to reduce stress and improve quality of life to retain drivers is now as or more important than wage increases.  

Near-term:  

• Continue to look at alternate transportation lanes, including smaller ports, to improve supply chain velocity and resiliency. Total transit time is important, but so is supply chain predictability. Evaluate alternative transportation lanes into the U.S., including entry through northern and southern borders and inland ports. 

Long-term:  

• Evaluate supplier and factory location density to mitigate reliance on over-taxed trade lanes and regions of the globe that have the potential for conflict. Density creates economy of scale but also risk, and the pandemic and subsequent logistics capacity crisis highlights the downside. Conflicts do not happen “overnight” so now is the time to address this potentially business disrupting issue.  

Note: This report uses the initial compiled release of U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data and is subject to revision later by CBP. The revised data can be seen in Descartes Datamyne.