May 2024 U.S. Containerized Imports Break 2.3M TEUs

May 2024 U.S. container import volume continued its robust 2024 growth, increasing 6.2% from April and 11.9% when compared to the same month last year.

Imports from China again had a strong month, reaching the second highest monthly volume since January of 2023. Port transit delays continue to improve across the board as there has been little impact on East and Gulf Coast import volumes from either the Panama drought or the Middle East conflict. May’s update of logistics metrics monitored by Descartes reinforces the strength of imports since the beginning of 2024. Despite strong U.S. container imports, the risk of global supply chain disruptions remains high because of ongoing conditions at the Panama and Suez Canals, upcoming labor negotiations at U.S. South Atlantic and Gulf Coast ports, and the Middle East conflict.

Versus May 2023, TEU import volume was up 11.9%, continuing to demonstrate exceptional year-over-year performance (see Figure 1). May 2024 U.S. container import volumes moved up from April 2024, increasing 6.2% to 2,346,382 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).  

Figure 1: U.S. Container Import Volume Year-over-Year Comparison

Source: Descartes Datamyne™

The April to May growth was in the middle of the range of the previous six years, ignoring the 2020 impact of the pandemic (see Figure 2).

Figure 2: April to May U.S. Container Import Volume Comparison

Source: Descartes Datamyne™ 

For the top 10 U.S. ports, container import volume in May 2024 increased 117,826 TEUs (6.1%) versus April 2024 (see Figure 3). The ports of New York (up 45,959 TEUs) and Long Beach (up 45,841 TEUs) experienced the greatest container volume increases from April. The Port of Los Angeles posted the largest volume decline, falling 26,399 TEUs (-6.3%).

Figure 3: April 2024 to May 2024 Comparison of Import Volumes at the Top 10 U.S. Ports

Source: Descartes Datamyne™ 

Chinese imports into the U.S. continued the strong rebound in May as imports grew to 890,760 TEUs. Compared to the August 2022 high of 1,003,725 TEUs, May 2024 Chinese imports are down 11.3%, but further narrowing the gap and up significantly from April 2024 (up 17.6%) (see Figure 4). The top two commodity codes (HS-2s) continued to be consumer-oriented goods such as HS-94 (Furniture, Bedding, etc.), HS-39 (Plastics and Articles Thereof). China represented 38.0% of the total U.S. container imports in April, an increase of 3.7% from April, but still down 3.5% from the high of 41.5% in February 2022.

Figure 4: May 2023 – May 2024 Comparison of U.S. Total and Chinese TEU Container Volume

Source: Descartes Datamyne

For the top 10 countries of origin (CoO), U.S. container import volume in May 2024 gained 146,526 TEUs, a 9.4% increase from April (see Figure 5). China had the lion’s share of the growth (133,619 TEUs or 17.6%). Imports from Japan (-11,189 TEUs) and Thailand (-9,602 TEUs) experienced the greatest volume decrease.

Figure 5: April 2024 to May 2024 Comparison of U.S. Import Volumes from Top 10 Countries of Origin

Source: Descartes Datamyne

In May 2024, container import volume share at East and Gulf Coast ports grew from April as West Coast ports receded. Comparing the top five West Coast ports to the top five East and Gulf Coast ports in May 2024 to April 2024 showed that total container import volume at the top East and Gulf Coast ports increased to 44.6% (up 0.7%) of total container import volume, and the top West Coast ports decreased slightly to 42.1% (down 0.7%). Compared to smaller ports, share at the top 10 ports in May 2024 held constant at 86.7% (see Figure 6).

Figure 6: Volume Analysis for Top Ports, West Coast Ports and East and Gulf Coast Ports

Source: Descartes Datamyne

With two exceptions, the West Coast ports expanding and East Coast ports contracting, transit delays moved slightly in May 2024. The ports of Long Beach (2.8 days) and Charleston (2.7 days) saw the greatest increases while the ports of Seattle and Norfolk saw the greatest decreases (both 1.1 days).

Figure 7: Monthly Average Transit Delays (in days) for the Top 10 Ports (Mar. 2024 – May 2024)

Source: Descartes Datamyne™

Note: Descartes’ definition of port transit delay is the difference as measured in days between the Estimated Arrival Date, which is initially declared on the bill of lading, and the date when Descartes receives the CBP-processed bill of lading.

At the end of May, the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) announced that it would continue with its April 15th plans to move to 32 transits per day and increase from 31 transits prior to the maintenance work at the Gatun locks from May 7–15. The increase in slots will still be shy of the normal operating capacity of 36.

The attacks and ongoing threats on shipping in the Red Sea by the Houthi from Yemen continue to force shippers to divert cargo that would traditionally move through the Suez Canal to longer and more expensive shipping lanes. Shipping concerns will likely increase if the Middle East is further destabilized.

At 237,478 TEUs, import volumes at the Gulf Coast ports grew significantly in May compared to April (up 10.8%) (see Figure 8). Gulf Coast ports’ transit times were unchanged in May 2024.

Figure 8: June 2023 to May 2024 U.S. Gulf Coast Container Imports

Source: Descartes Datamyne™

The work clearing the channel at the Port of Baltimore is well underway. While some smaller ships can use an alternative path, the volume is nascent. Descartes will track the progress and report on volume of containers coming into the port as it comes back online.

There has been considerable press about the shortage of containers, especially for Chinese exports. Analyzing container flow from the U.S. to China, including empty containers, paints a puzzling picture for today’s shortage of containers in China. Imports from China and, hence, demand for containers increased 15.5% for the first five months of 2024 versus 2023. However, looking at the same period for imports and empty containers moving into China from the U.S. shows an increase of total containers of 40.7% with 74.9% of them being empties. In addition, empty container flow from the U.S. to China was at its highest in 2023 versus all of the pandemic years. It does not appear that the flow of empty containers from the U.S. to China is currently impacting their availability in China. 

The potential severity of trade disruption stemming from the expiration of the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) agreement is currently unknown. The agreement is scheduled to expire at the end of September 2024 and, if no resolution is reached, labor action could disrupt operations at these ports. ILA leadership has communicated that they do not intend to extend the current agreement and have advised members to brace for the possibility of a coast-wide strike in October 2024. The two sides have announced that negotiations will resume shortly. 

U.S. container import volume increased in May 2024 and maintained a strong position when compared to 2023 and pre-pandemic 2019 statistics for the same period. The economy continues to exceed expectations. However, the ongoing Panama Canal capacity constraints, conflict in the Middle East, pending ILA contract negotiations, and recent infrastructure challenges at the Port of Baltimore, point to potential trade flow disruptions. Here’s what Descartes will be watching in 2024 to see if global supply chain performance will continue to improve:

• Monthly TEU volumes between 2.4M and 2.6M. This level will continue to stress ports and inland logistics until infrastructure improvements are made. May U.S. container import volumes remained manageable, breaching 2.3M TEUs. 
• Port transit wait times. If they decrease, it’s an indication of improved global supply chain efficiencies or that the demand for goods and logistics services is declining. May transit delays decreased with two exceptions. 
• Continuing impact of the pandemic. The spread of COVID subvariants continues to add uncertainty to the trajectory of the pandemic and impact supply chains in unpredictable ways as different countries are affected at different times and for different durations. New COVID variants are causing infection rates to rise. The impact on supply chains and logistics resources has yet to be observed but developments need to be closely monitored throughout the year.   
• The economy. The U.S. is an import-driven economy, so economic health is an important indicator of container import volumes. As of June 3rd, the Federal Reserve borrowing rate remained at 5.3% to slow inflation which was down slightly (-0.4%) at April’s reported 3.4%. Job growth remains strong, and the unemployment rate has remained favorably low. Yet, consumers continue to spend as the inflation adjusted personal consumption expenditures of durable goods was flat in April (latest available results) versus March, and still near the high for the last two years.  
• Panama Canal-based trade flow. Although water levels are improving, maintenance work in May at the Panama Canal Gatun locks will reduce capacity by 3 transit slots May 7^th through 15^th before increasing total transit capacity from 24 to 32 slots. Furthermore, the potential strike of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) anticipated later in 2024 could accelerate the redirection of the one million TEUs that shifted from the West Coast ports during the pandemic. Container volume in May at top East and Gulf Coast ports was up and port transit time delays were down. 
• Middle East conflict. Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea by Houthis from Yemen are continuing to influence carriers to forego the Suez Canal, extending transit times, and negatively impacting global shipping capacity. The impact of diversions away from the conflict is still minimal on volumes or transit delays for the East and Gulf Coast ports.  
• ILA/USMX contract negotiation. A potential strike on the South Atlantic and Gulf Coasts could disrupt U.S. container imports later in 2024. Given the current Panama Canal situation, shifting volume to West Coast ports could be extremely challenging or significantly extend transit times. Both organizations have agreed to resume negotiations in the next month. 

May 2024 U.S. container import volumes were up compared to April 2024. Port transit times continued to improve overall in May compared to April delays.  Ongoing issues in Panama and the Middle East are creating pressure on global supply chains that could cause disruptions throughout 2024. Descartes will continue to highlight key Descartes Datamyne, U.S. government and industry data in the coming months to provide insight into global shipping.  

Short-term: 

• Monitor East Coast port volumes to further assess displaced volumes resulting from the closure of the Port of Baltimore. 
• Track the Panama Canal Authority’s plan for restricted transit capacity. 
• Track the Middle East conflict as carriers have begun to divert shipping around Africa, and this will impact shipping capacity and timeliness. 
• Track the spread of COVID variants to determine when they will hit critical parts of the supply chain, especially in China. 
• Track ocean shipments and carrier performance as there is still a considerable gap between original ETAs and actual ones.   
• Evaluate the impact of inflation and the Russia/Ukraine and Israel/Hamas conflicts on logistics costs and capacity constraints. Ensure that key trading partners are not on sanctions lists.  
• Evaluate the potential impact of an ILA strike in October 2024 on South Atlantic and Gulf Coast ports to determine alternate ports or trade lanes. 

Near-term:  

• For companies importing from Asia, reevaluate trade that was moved away from West Coast ports. 
• For companies that have cargo moving through the Suez Canal, evaluate the impact of extended rerouting. 

Long-term:  

• Evaluate supplier and factory location density to mitigate reliance on over-taxed trade lanes and regions of the globe that have the potential for conflict. Density creates economy of scale but also risk, and the pandemic and subsequent logistics capacity crisis highlights the downside. Conflicts do not happen “overnight” so now is the time to address this potentially business disrupting issue.  

Note: This report uses the initial compiled release of U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data and is subject to revision later by CBP. The revised data can be seen in Descartes Datamyne.