November 2024 U.S. Container Imports Show Softer Seasonal Decline 

For the first time in four months, U.S. container imports dipped below 2.4 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU)—a threshold that has historically strained U.S. maritime logistics. At 2,368,758 TEUs, November 2024 volumes were down 5% from October’s 2,494,635 TEUs, which is consistent with seasonal month-over-month decreases seen in previous years, though smaller than the 9% decrease over the same period in 2023.   

In November, U.S. container imports from China also declined from October, ending a four-month stretch of volumes exceeding 900,000 TEUs. Since peaking at a record high of 1,022,913 TEUs in July 2024, Chinese imports have declined by 13.2%. Despite the decline, November figures are 13.3% higher than the same month in 2023, underscoring the resilience and continued strength of U.S.–China trade. 

Descartes’ December update on logistics metrics highlights the sustained strength of container imports in 2024; however, numerous challenges loom for U.S. importers as the year draws to a close. Potential tariff changes under the incoming Trump administration in January 2025 could significantly reshape the trade landscape. Other factors threatening the stability of global trade include the January deadline for USMX/ILA negotiations, increasing port delays on the West Coast, and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Together, these issues may drive supply chain volatility for the remainder of December and into the new year. 

November 2024 U.S. container import volumes decreased 5.0% from October 2024 to 2,368,758 TEUs, dipping for the first time in four months below 2.4 million TEUs—a level that previously led to port congestion and delays during the pandemic (see Figure 1). Versus November 2023, TEU volume in November 2024 was higher by 12.8%, and up a remarkable 24.6% from pre-pandemic November 2019. Compared to the first 11 months of 2019, import volumes have grown by 17.6% over the same period in 2024. 

These results continue to underscore the strength of U.S. container imports throughout 2024. Notably, total imports for the first 11 months (25,829,192 TEUs) of 2024 have already surpassed the 12-month total (24,957,640 TEUs) for 2023—by 871,552 TEUs or 3.5%.  

Figure 1: U.S. Container Import Volume Year-over-Year Comparison

Source: Descartes Datamyne™

While the November decrease is consistent with seasonal month-over-month reductions seen in previous years, it is softer than the 9% decline from October to November last year (see Figure 2). For context, November is one day shorter than October and includes U.S. Thanksgiving, which may also contribute to a seasonal decrease in volumes. Compared to the past six years, the seasonal October-to-November decline in 2024 is the smallest by volume (down 125,877 TEUs), followed closely by the decrease over the same period in 2021 (down 128,026 TEUs). 

Figure 2: October to November U.S. Container Import Volume Comparison

Source: Descartes Datamyne™ 

In November 2024, container import volumes at the top 10 U.S. ports declined by 140,242 TEUs, a 6.6% decrease compared to October 2024 (see Figure 3). Tacoma (up 4,677 TEUs) was the only port that recorded a volume increase. The remaining nine ports all recorded volume decreases, with the ports of Long Beach (down 64,187 TEUs), New York/New Jersey (down 43,969 TEUs), and Los Angeles (down 12,888 TEUs) experiencing the most significant month-over-month declines. 

Figure 3: October 2024 to November 2024 Comparison of Import Volumes at Top 10 U.S. Ports 

Source: Descartes Datamyne™ 

In November 2024, U.S. import volume from China declined by 7.5% over October to 887,781 TEUs and was 13.2% lower than the peak in July 2024 (1,022,913 TEUs) (see Figure 4). Year-over-year, November imports from China increased 13.3%, reflecting the overall upward trend in 2024. The top two commodity categories (HS-2 codes) for November 2024 were HS-94 (Furniture, Bedding, etc.) and HS-39 (Plastics and Articles Thereof). China accounted for 37.5% of total U.S. container imports in November, a 1.0% decrease from October and 4.0% below the February 2022 peak of 41.5%. 

Figure 4: November 2023–November 2024 Comparison of U.S. Total and Chinese TEU Container Volume Relative to Chinese Import Record 

Source: Descartes Datamyne

In November 2024, U.S. container import volume from the top 10 countries of origin (CoO) fell by 116,104 TEUs, representing a 6.4% decline from October (see Figure 5). Among these countries, Germany (up 5,950 TEUs) and Italy (up 3,693 TEUs) experienced the largest volume increases. In contrast, China (down 72,235 TEUs), Vietnam (down 27,148 TEUs), and Thailand (down 12,774 TEUs) recorded the most significant volume decreases. 

Figure 5: October 2024 to November 2024 Comparison of U.S. Import Volumes from Top 10 Countries of Origin 

Source: Descartes Datamyne

For the sixth consecutive month, the top five West Coast ports continued to capture a larger share of container import volumes compared to their East and Gulf Coast counterparts. November data reveals only slight shifts in distribution: the West Coast’s share edged down from 45.8% in October to 45.0% in November, while the East and Gulf Coast’s share dipped slightly from 39.4% to 38.9%. The dominance of the top 10 ports declined to its weakest level in 2024, decreasing to 83.8% in November from 85.2% in October (see Figure 6). 

Figure 6: Volume Analysis for Top Ports, West Coast Ports and East and Gulf Coast Ports 

Source: Descartes Datamyne

Overall, delays were mixed among top 10 U.S. ports. Transit delays across East Coast ports improved while West Coast ports experienced increasing delay times. The delays at West Coast ports and improvements at East Coast Ports were largely insignificant. The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach saw the largest increase in transit times (one day each) while the Port of Houston saw the largest improvement with transit times decreasing by 0.9, or almost one day.  

Figure 7: Monthly Average Transit Delays (in days) for the Top 10 Ports (Sept. 2024 – Nov. 2024) 

Source: Descartes Datamyne™

Note: Descartes’ definition of port transit delay is the difference as measured in days between the Estimated Arrival Date, which is initially declared on the bill of lading, and the date when Descartes receives the CBP-processed bill of lading data.

With the incoming Trump administration signaling intentions to implement broader and deeper tariffs on a range of commodities, emphasizing imports from China, Mexico and Canada, there is heightened uncertainty surrounding the global trade environment. While it is possible that, in the coming months, some U.S. importers may pull shipments forward in anticipation of tariff changes, U.S. container import volumes currently show no definitive response from the market.  

The Houthi rebels continued to attack vessels throughout the Red Sea in November, including U.S. cargo and warships. The U.S. Navy has successfully defended against multiple Houthi-launched attacks, however, the ongoing attacks continue to disrupt shipping and slow trade throughout the region while increasing global shipping costs. Global trade conditions are expected to become more volatile if the Middle East is further destabilized. 

Figure 8: December 2023 to November 2024 U.S. Gulf Coast Container Imports 

Source: Descartes Datamyne™

Following October’s tentative agreement to extend the collective bargaining period until January 15, 2025, negotiations resumed in November; however, the two groups immediately reached a standstill. For now, volumes at East Coast ports appear stable while Gulf Coast imports grow—potentially driven by importers front-loading shipments ahead of the expiration of the negotiation deadline. If the ILA and USMX are unable to reach an agreement ahead of the January deadline, supply chain disruptions at these ports may ensue.  

U.S. container import volume was just shy of the 2.4 million TEU mark in November 2024, decreasing only 5% from October volumes. The economy continues to exceed expectations, however, the anticipation of incoming tariffs, approaching deadline for the ILA/USMX agreement, increasing West Coast port delays and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East may create challenges for global supply chains. Here’s what Descartes will be watching for the remainder of 2024: 

• Monthly TEU volumes between 2.4M and 2.6M. This level will continue to stress ports and inland logistics until infrastructure improvements are made. November 2024 imports fell just shy of the 2.4M level; however, the month had fewer operational days than October. 

• Port transit wait times. If they decrease, it’s an indication of improved global supply chain efficiencies or that the demand for goods and logistics services is declining. November 2024 transit delays slightly increased among West Coast ports while port transit times slightly improved across East Coast ports. 

• Expanded tariffs and other potential ‘protectionist’ trade policies. Depending on the short- to medium-term priorities of the incoming Trump administration, there are concerns about broader and deeper tariffs applied to a wide array of goods imported by the U.S. This could compel U.S. importers to significantly re-engineer their supply chains, putting additional pressure on global logistics infrastructure. 

• The economy. The U.S. is an import-driven economy, so economic health is an important indicator of container import volumes. Following the November Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Federal Reserve borrowing rate was lowered 25 basis points to 4.5% while reported inflation was 2.6%. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics October employment report, the unemployment rate remained mostly unchanged at 4.1% while employers added 12,000 jobs. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for December 17-18. 

• Middle East conflict. Houthi attacks are continuing to influence carriers to forego the Suez Canal, extending transit times around the Cape of Good Hope. The impact of diversions away from the conflict is still minimal on volumes or transit delays for East and Gulf Coast ports.   

• ILA/USMX contract negotiation. Negotiations stalled again in November. With the January 15, 2025 deadline approaching, it will be important to monitor this situation until a final contract is ratified. 

U.S. container import volumes in November continued to demonstrate the robust performance seen throughout 2024. Although imports dipped below the 2.4 million TEU threshold for the first time in four months, this decrease is likely attributable to November’s shorter calendar and reduced import capacity, rather than a sign of slowing demand. Meanwhile, ILA/USMX contract negotiations are again stalled, with the expiry of their temporary agreement quickly approaching. Adding to the uncertainty, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is exerting increasing pressure on global supply chains. Further complicating the trade landscape, the potential introduction of new tariffs by the incoming Trump administration could significantly impact global trade flows and force supply chain re-engineering. Descartes will continue to monitor and share key insights using Descartes Datamyne, along with U.S. government and industry data, to provide valuable perspectives on global shipping trends in the months ahead. 

Short-term: 

• Monitor port volumes and delays to assess trade disruptions as imports remain between the 2.4M and 2.6M levels that have historically stressed U.S. maritime logistics infrastructure. 
• Consider modelling the impacts of increased tariffs on imported goods, and whether a change in sourcing strategy could mitigate potentially higher costs.  
• Track the Middle East conflict as carriers divert shipping around Africa, impacting shipping capacity and timeliness. 
• Evaluate the impact of inflation and the Russia/Ukraine and Israel/Hamas conflicts on logistics costs and capacity constraints. Ensure that key trading partners are not on sanctions lists.   

Near-term:  

• For companies that have cargo moving through the Suez Canal, evaluate the impact of extended rerouting caused by Middle East conflicts. 

Long-term:  

• Evaluate supplier and factory location density to mitigate reliance on over-taxed trade lanes and regions of the globe that have the potential for conflict. Density creates economy of scale but also risk, and subsequent logistics capacity crisis highlights the downside. Conflicts do not happen “overnight” so now is the time to address this potentially business disrupting issue.