October U.S. Container Import Volumes Accelerate, Diverging from Pre-Pandemic 2019 Trend 

In October 2023, U.S. container import volume increased from September 2023, moving significantly ahead of October 2019 imports. Instead of the peak season decline that traditionally starts in the August timeframe, import volumes continue to rise and begin to approach the levels that resulted in port congestion during the pandemic. Imports from China continued to increase, but at a slower pace than in previous months. Despite the volume increase, port transit times stabilized or retreated to some of their lowest levels. Despite favorable labor conditions and concerns about the Panama Canal drought, the top West Coast ports’ volume declined. The Panama drought does not appear to be impacting U.S. container import volume given yearly import highs for Gulf Coast ports. The November update of the logistics metrics Descartes is tracking shows abnormal seasonal import patterns and signs that some of the key challenges to global supply chain performance in 2023 are improving, but others are not.

October 2023 U.S. container import volumes increased 4.7% from September 2023 to 2,307,918 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) (see Figure 1). Versus October 2022, TEU volume was higher by 3.9%, and up 11.4% from pre-pandemic October 2019. The growth in import volume over the first ten months of 2023 is within 3.4% of the same period in 2019.

Figure 1: U.S. Container Import Volume Year-over-Year Comparison

Source: Descartes Datamyne™

In the previous six years, import volume increased from September to October as it is one day longer and has no major holidays. October 2023 import volume maintained this trend with a robust increase over September (see Figure 2).

Figure 2: September to October U.S. Container Import Volume Comparison

Source: Descartes Datamyne™ 

For the top 10 ports, overall U.S. container import volume in October 2023 was up 87,652 TEUs versus September (see Figure 3) with six of the ten ports showing increases. The Port of New York/New Jersey (44,621 TEUs) experienced the greatest overall container volume increase, while the Ports of Los Angeles (-16,813 TEUs) and Long Beach (-12,313 TEUs) had the greatest decreases.

Figure 3: September to October Comparison of Import Volumes at Top 10 U.S. Ports

Source: Descartes Datamyne™ 

Chinese imports in October 2023 increased by 2.3% over September 2023 to 886,842 TEUs, but they were still down 11.6% from the August 2022 high (see Figure 4). China represented 38.4% of the total U.S. container imports in October, a decrease of 0.9% from September and down 3.1% from the high of 41.5% in February 2022.

Figure 4: October 2022–October 2023 Comparison of U.S. Total and Chinese TEU Container Volume

Source: Descartes Datamyne

For the top 10 countries of origin (CoO), U.S. container import volume in October 2023 increased 4.1% (64,950 TEUs) from the previous month, with China having the greatest volume increase (20,081 TEUs) and Japan (-5,643 TEUs) having the greatest volume decrease (see Figure 5).

Figure 5: September to October Comparison of U.S. Import Volumes from Top 10 Countries of Origin

Source: Descartes Datamyne

In October 2023, the volume share at top East and Gulf Coast ports increased based upon the significant volume increase at the Port New York/New Jersey and growth at the rest of the top East Coast ports. Comparing the top five East and Gulf Coast ports to the top five West Coast ports in October 2023 versus September 2023 shows that, of the total import container volume, top East and Gulf Coast ports increased to 45.1% (up 3.0%) and top West Coast ports decreased to 39.6% (down 3.7%). Compared to smaller ports, the top 10 ports’ share in October 2023 decreased slightly to 84.8%, down 0.6% versus September 2023 (see Figure 6).

Figure 6: Volume Analysis for Top Ports, West Coast Ports and East and Gulf Coast Ports

Source: Descartes Datamyne

In October 2023, overall port transit delays receded. Most top West Coast ports saw transit time reductions versus September 2023 (see Figure 7) and, again, October was one of the lowest months for delays since Descartes started tracking them. The top East and Gulf Coast ports stabilized with two ports (Norfolk and Houston) experiencing transit delay decreases. The Port of Seattle experienced the greatest decrease (1.6 days) and the Port of New York/New Jersey had only a slight increase (0.1 days) in October 2023 compared to September.

Figure 7: Monthly Average Transit Delays (in days) for the Top 10 Ports

Source: Descartes Datamyne™

Note: Descartes’ definition of port transit delay is the difference as measured in days between the Estimated Arrival Date, which is initially declared on the bill of lading, and the date when Descartes receives the CBP-processed bill of lading.

Panama’s drought continues and the Panama Canal authorities continue to reduce the number of ships passing daily. However, the drought still does not appear to be impacting U.S. container import volumes (see Figure 8). Volumes at Gulf Coast ports are following overall U.S. container import volumes and were at their highest for the year in October. Transit times also decreased for the Ports of Houston (-1.1 days), Mobile (-1.0 days), Tampa (-2.0 days) and New Orleans (-1.1 days) in October.

Figure 8: U.S. Gulf Coast Container Imports for 2023

Source: Descartes Datamyne™

U.S. container import volume increased in October, continuing to diverge from 2019 numbers. There are positive signs that point to less supply chain turbulence, but there are also emerging signs of potential disruptions. Here’s what Descartes will be watching to see if global supply chain performance will continue to improve:

• Monthly TEU volumes between 2.4M and 2.6M. This level will continue to stress ports and inland logistics until infrastructure can be enhanced. October U.S. container import volumes are up to 2.3M TEUs, which is getting close to congestion levels.
• Port transit wait times. If they decrease, it’s an indication of improved global supply chain efficiencies capabilities or that the demand for goods and logistics services is declining. October port wait time performance stabilized and, at a number of ports, decreased.
• Continuing impact of the pandemic. The spread of COVID subvariants continues to add uncertainty to the trajectory of the pandemic and impact supply chains in unpredictable ways as different countries are affected at different times and for different durations. A new variant of COVID is causing infection rates to rise, which has not yet impacted supply chains and logistics resources but needs to be watched throughout the remainder of the year.
• The economy. The U.S. is an import-driven economy, so economic health is an important indicator of container import volumes. However, there are many indicators that continue to provide conflicting stories. As of October, the Federal Reserve stabilized the borrowing rate at 5.5% to slow inflation which has dropped to 3.7% (as of September 2023). Yet, consumers continue to spend as the inflation adjusted personal consumption expenditures of durable goods continues to rise with October 2023 figures being the highest again in the last two years.
• Panama Canal-based trade flow. The combination of the drought impacting capacity and the recently ratified International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) could accelerate the redirection of the one million TEUs that shifted from the West Coast ports during the pandemic. For Gulf Coast ports, container import volume in October was the highest for 2023 and transit times in October decreased by 1.0 to 2.0 days at the top four Gulf Coast ports.

October 2023 U.S. container import volumes were up versus September 2023, increasing significantly over October 2019 and diverging from pre-pandemic 2019 numbers for the third consecutive month. Port transit times in October stabilized or decreased for all but one port. This data reaffirms that the pressure on supply chains and logistics operations is continuing to lift, but there are still issues that can cause further disruptions. Descartes will continue to highlight key Descartes Datamyne, U.S. government and industry data in the coming months to provide insight into global shipping.

Short-term: 

• Track the spread of COVID variants to determine when they will hit critical parts of the supply chain, especially in China.
• Track ocean shipments and carrier performance as there is still a considerable gap between original ETAs and actual ones.
• Track the Panama Canal situation as the drought may impact shipping capacity and timeliness and even cause rerouting of supply chains.
• Evaluate the impact of inflation and the Russia/Ukraine and Israel/Hamas conflicts on logistics costs and capacity constraints. Ensure that key trading partners are not on sanctions lists.
• Focus on keeping the supply chain resources you have, especially drivers. The old adage “a bird in the hand is worth more than two in the bush” definitely applies here. Building trips to reduce stress and improve quality of life to retain drivers is now as or more important than wage increases.

Near-term:  

• For companies importing from Asia, reevaluate trade that was moved away from West Coast ports. 

Long-term:  

• Evaluate supplier and factory location density to mitigate reliance on over-taxed trade lanes and regions of the globe that have the potential for conflict. Density creates economy of scale but also risk, and the pandemic and subsequent logistics capacity crisis highlights the downside. Conflicts do not happen “overnight” so now is the time to address this potentially business disrupting issue.  

Note: This report uses the initial compiled release of U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data and is subject to revision later by CBP. The revised data can be seen in Descartes Datamyne.